Structural change in China: the role of factor market distortions

This paper proposes a systematic accounting framework to decompose the reallocation of labour out of agriculture into factor market distortions and market-driven forces. The findings are twofold. First, the removal of factor market distortions is a dominant driving force of the structural change in China in the last decades, which contributes 50.52%, and market-driven forces account for the rest 49.48%. Second, the contribution of market-driven forces has been increasing with the deepening of market-oriented reforms, while the impact of the removal of factor market distortions has been decreasing especially along with the slowdown of labour market reforms after China joined the WTO in 2001. The results imply that further reforms that aim at correcting factor market distortions could still be an important impetus of structural change in the future.     

Budget impact model in moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris assessing effects of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate foam on per-patient standard of care costs

Aims: To develop a budget impact model (BIM) for estimating the financial impact of formulary adoption and uptake of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate (C/BD) foam (0.005%/0.064%) on the costs of biologics for treating moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris in a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million members.

Methods: This BIM incorporated epidemiologic data, market uptake assumptions, and drug utilization costs, simulating the treatment mix for patients who are candidates for biologics before (Scenario #1) and after (Scenario #2) the introduction of C/BD foam. Predicted outcomes were expressed in terms of the annual cost of treatment (COT) and the COT per member per month (PMPM).

Results: At year 1, C/BD foam had the lowest per-patient cost ($9,913) necessary to achieve a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI)-75 response compared with etanercept ($73,773), adalimumab ($92,871), infliximab ($34,048), ustekinumab ($83,975), secukinumab ($113,858), apremilast ($47,960), and ixekizumab ($62,707). Following addition of C/BD foam to the formulary, the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis would decrease by $36,112,572 (17.91%, from $201,621,219 to $165,508,647). The COT PMPM is expected to decrease by $3.00 (17.86%, from $16.80 to $13.80).

Limitations: Drug costs were based on Medi-Span reference pricing (January 21, 2016); differences in treatment costs for drug administration, laboratory monitoring, or adverse events were not accounted for. Potentially confounding were the definition of “moderate-to-severe” and the heterogeneous efficacy data. The per-patient cost for PASI-75 response at year 1 was estimated from short-term efficacy data for C/BD foam and apremilast only.

Conclusions: The introduction of C/BD foam is expected to decrease the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis treatable with biologics by $36,112,572 for a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million plan members, and to lower the COT PMPM by $3.00.     

Outcomes of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor cycling versus switching to a disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug with a new mechanism of action among patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives: To examine treatment patterns, treatment effectiveness, and treatment costs for 1 year after patients with rheumatoid arthritis switched from a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) (adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, or infliximab), either cycling to another TNFi (“TNFi cyclers”) or switching to a new mechanism of action (abatacept, tocilizumab, or tofacitinib) (“new MOA switchers”).

Methods: This retrospective cohort study used administrative claims data for a national insurer. Treatment persistence (without switching again, restarting, or discontinuing), treatment effectiveness (defined below), and costs were assessed for the 12-month post-switch period. Patients were “effectively treated” if they satisfied all six criteria for a treatment effectiveness algorithm (high adherence, no dose increase, no new conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug, no subsequent switch in therapy, no new/increased oral glucocorticoids, and <2 glucocorticoid injections). Multivariable logistic models were used to adjust for baseline factors.

Results: The database included 581 new MOA switchers and 935 TNFi cyclers. New MOA switchers were 39% more likely than TNFi cyclers to persist after the switch (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.12–1.74; p?=?.003) and 36% less likely to switch therapy again (OR?=?0.64; 95% CI?=?0.51–0.81; p?p?=?.006). New MOA switchers had 16% lower drug costs than TNFi cyclers (cost ratio?=?0.84; 95% CI?=?0.79–0.88; p?p?Limitations: Claims payments may not reflect rebates or other cost offsets. Medical and pharmacy claims do not include clinical end-points or reasons that lead to new MOA switching vs TNFi cycling.

Conclusions: These results support switching to a new MOA after a patient fails treatment with a TNFi, which is consistent with recent guidelines for the pharmacologic management of established rheumatoid arthritis.     

要素禀赋、技术差异与中国的对外贸易

要素禀赋理论认为各国要素禀赋的差异导致了国际贸易的产生。中国及其贸易伙伴国的数据表明,仅仅利用要素禀赋的差异并不能完全解释国际贸易的成因。把中国和贸易伙伴国的技术差异纳入要素禀赋理论以后,要素禀赋理论的解释力大大加强。也就是说,要素禀赋和生产技术的差异这两个因素已经很好地解释了中国和8个主要贸易伙伴国之间的贸易的成因。     

基于多元统计分析的区域高技术产业发展水平比较研究

高技术产业是国民经济的战略性先导产业,是推动产业结构升级和经济增长方式转变的重要力量。高技术产业的发展水平,已成为一个国家或地区综合竞争力的重要体现。通过哪些指标来反映高技术产业的发展水平,通过什么方法对区域高技术产业发展水平进行比较,这是最为关键的。笔者本着科学性、全面性、可行性、可比性、同向性、总量指标与相对指标相结合的原则,从高技术产业的投入、产出(包括科技创新)、经济效益三个方面,选出了18项指标反映高技术产业的发展水平,并用因子分析、聚类分析方法对区域高技术产业发展水平进行了比较,得出:高技术产业的发展水平与经济发展水平密切相关,但也有例外。     

我国收入差距扩大的影响因素及其实证分析——以行业收入变动为视角

笔者以传统行业收入决定理论为基础,运用2003年～2008年我国19个行业的面板数据构建模型,系统地分析了2002年至今各行业收入变动的影响因素及其影响效果.结果表明,生产效率仍然是决定收入变动的重要因素;垄断因素在行业收入差距扩大中扮演最重要的角色;人力资本水平对收入变动的作用有待于进一步提升.笔者还阐述了加入"世贸"组织后垄断行业暴利、高教扩招等社会现实问题对行业收入变动的影响.     

旅游产业集群形成影响因素关联度分析——以长株潭城市群旅游圈为例

旅游产业集群的发展可以提升旅游地的竞争力,促进区域经济的增长。随着旅游业的转型升级,旅游产业集群已成为旅游业发展的必然趋势。以长株潭为例,探讨旅游产业集群的影响因子,并运用灰色关联分析方法量化各因子对产业集群形成的关联度,从而为旅游产业集群指明方向。     

农村居民旅游消费影响因素研究

在考察旅游需求经济理论的基础上,选择1994-2008年的年度数据为样本,利用协整分析与误差修正模型实证分析了农村居民旅游消费的决定因素。结果表明,农村居民旅游消费不仅受自身收入、消费习惯等因素的制约,而且受城镇居民旅游消费的影响。农村居民旅游消费收入弹性大,人均可支配收入仍是其旅游消费的最大制约因素;农村居民旅游消费有显著的不可逆性,＂棘轮效应＂明显;城镇居民旅游消费行为对农村居民有显著的＂示范效应＂。此外,农村居民居住消费对旅游消费有＂挤出效应＂。因此,在继续重视增加农民收入、拉动旅游消费的同时,可通过培养其良好的消费习惯、建立城镇居民旅游消费的正面示范机制,发展农村旅游休闲消费。     

国内游客旅游商品购买行为影响因素探析

旅游商品在旅游业发展中起着重要作用。采用问卷调查法收集数据,借助SPSS16.0统计软件对数据进行因子分析,从而确定消费者购买旅游商品时的影响因素,提出开发策略：加深旅游商品内涵、改进旅游商品外观、控制旅游商品价格、创造旅游商品品牌、保障旅游商品质量、引导旅游商品购买、创新旅游商品种类。     

对新形势下“网络反腐”的新思考

正确地认识“网络反腐”,充分而正确地发挥“反腐”的作用,必须确立四个基本观点：一是网络反腐势属必行可行;二是网络反腐具有独特优势;三是网络反腐受制因素复杂;四是网络反腐重在完善规范。